Broker tips: Greggs, Mattioli Woods

By Iain Gilbert

Analysts at Berenberg lowered their target price on bakery chain Greggs from 3,600.0p to 3,000.0p on Friday despite earnings estimates holding firm.
Berenberg noted that Greggs shares were down by 45% year-to-date, despite earnings estimates holding firm, leaving them trading at their lowest multiple for many years.

“We see the prospect of upgrades over the medium term, as Greggs delivers on key milestones on its path to reach its target of doubling sales by 2026 (from 2021) – see On course to double sales by 2026, dated 3 November 2021 – which should also contribute towards a re-rating over time,” said Berenberg.

“We reiterate our ‘buy’ rating, although our price target falls slightly in line with peer multiples.”

Analysts at Canaccord Genuity lowered their target price on diversified financials outfit Mattioli Woods from 895.0p to 850.0p on Friday to reflect market movements following the group’s annual general meeting.

Canaccord Genuity said Mattioli Woods’ AGM statement provided reassurance with respect to ongoing organic revenue growth in its pensions and advice business.

In line with what the analysts see elsewhere in the wealth and asset management sector, market volatility sas, however, said to be having an impact on assets under management growth.

“Given this update, we believe it prudent to review assumptions and have consequently made some slight adjustments, resulting in single-digit EPS cuts across our forecast horizon,” said Canaccord.

“Our valuation methodology remains unchanged. We retain CY23 as the target date and apply a 20% premium to the long-run, one-year forward sub-sector PE of 14.5x, thus a target multiple of 17.4x. We believe this is justified based on the proven strong performance of MTW across various cycles, relatively defensive revenue model and attractive business and distribution mix. Our new TP is 850p (prev: 895p), reflecting our reduced EPS forecasts. The implied upside is 44%.”

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