JPMorgan has downgraded Rio Tinto to ‘underweight’ following a review of European mining stocks.
In a note published on Wednesday, the bank said it was ‘overweight’ on European, Middle East and African metals and mining for 2023, “since metals are a key beneficiary of China’s re-opening, plus positioning for a weaker US dollar”.
It continued: “JP Morgan Strategists’ base case is for a European and US recession in 2023, but that China re-opens with 4% 2023 estimated GDP and easy macro-comps in 2023 are likely to support superior growth momentum of China versus the rest of the world.
“We identify 2023 as marking a pivotal shift in cyclical and structural themes that have dominated miners’ share prices in recent years: ‘green’ metals demand growth, iron ore supply, capex and shareholder returns.”
It reiterated Glencore and Anglo American – both of which have an ‘overweight’ rating’ – as its top picks in European mining. But it reduced Rio Tinto to ‘underweight’ from ‘neutral’, despite expecting “strong tailwinds” for the Anglo-Australian miner in the first quarter.
In European steel, it downgraded Sweden’s SSAB to ‘underweight’, and stayed ‘neutral’ on Mittal and ThyssenKrupp.
