Week ahead: US CPI, Mid-term elections in focus

by | Nov 7, 2022

The market spotlight over the coming week would be firmly on US consumer price data for October, which were scheduled for release on Thursday.
Consensus was for a dip in the annual rate of consumer prices from 8.2% for September to 8.0% in October (Barclays: 7.8%).

At the core level meanwhile, CPI was seen ticking lower from 6.7% to 6.6% (Barclays: 6.4%).

The week’s other main event would be the result of the US midterm elections, on Tuesday.

If forecasts for political gridlock proved right, that might entail less fiscal spending in FY 2023 and less policy tightening by the Fed to offset it.

A preliminary reading for the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence survey in November, on Friday, was also likely to draw a fair bit of attention.

In parallel, investors would be closely watching a steady stream of Fed speakers.

Further afield, Monday was set to see a reading on Chinese foreign trade covering the month of October, followed by consumer and factory gate price data covering that same month on Wednesday.

On home shores, the week’s data releases would be back-end loaded with readings for monthly and quarterly gross domestic product both due out on Friday.

Barclays was forecasting a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter drop in GDP over the third quarter, despite growth of 0.2% in both private consumption and fixed capital formation.

Worth noting, real UK GDP growth was seen remaining in the red until the last three months of 2023 when flat quarterly growth was anticipated.

In the euro area, figures for German industrial production in September were due out on Monday and a final reading for German consumer prices on Friday.

Similarly, European Central Bank boss, Christine Lagarde, was set to participate at a panel discussion and Monday, while her number, vice-President Luis de Guindos and ECB chief economist Philip Lane would deliver speeches on Friday.

Monday 07 November

INTERIMS

Great Eastern Energy Corp Ltd. GDR, Tharisa (DI)

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Mobeus Income & Growth 2 Vct

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Consumer Credit (US) (20:00)

Industrial Production (GER) (07:00)

EGMS

B90 Holdings NPV

AGMS

Future Metals Nl (DI)

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Beazley

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Halifax House Price Index (07:00)

Tuesday 08 November

INTERIMS

Argentex Group , Aveva Group, DCC (CDI), Marks Electrical Group, Marks Electrical Group, Oxford Instruments, Warehouse Reit, Zoo Digital Group

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Balance of Trade (GER) (07:00)

Current Account (GER) (07:00)

Retail Sales (GER) (10:00)

FINALS

Associated British Foods, Beximco Pharmaceuticals Ltd. GDR

ANNUAL REPORT

Associated British Foods

AGMS

DG Innovate, DG Innovate, Frontier Developments, Pensana

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Coca-Cola HBC AG (CDI), Persimmon

Wednesday 09 November

INTERIMS

Biffa, Marks & Spencer Group, Norcros, Volex, Watches of Switzerland Group , Workspace Group, Workspace Group

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE

BlackRock Latin American Inv Trust

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Honeywell International Inc., INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPORATION COM STK USD0.20 (CDI), Seplat Energy (DI)

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)

MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (11:00)

Wholesales Inventories (US) (15:00)

Q3

Atalaya Mining, Georgia Capital

FINALS

Smiths News , Smiths News , Versarien

EGMS

Baker Steel Resources Trust Ltd.

AGMS

Hays, JPMorgan Emerging Markets Inv Trust, Powerhouse Energy Group

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Conduit Holdings Limited Com Shs (DI), Taylor Wimpey, The Gym Group

Thursday 10 November

INTERIMS

Auto Trader Group , B&M European Value Retail S.A. (DI), National Grid, QinetiQ Group, Renewi

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Good Energy Group, Octopus AIM VCT 2

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Airtel Africa , Anpario, Asia Dragon Trust , BlackRock Smaller Companies Trust, Coral Products, ProVen Growth & Income VCT, ProVen VCT, Sainsbury (J), Warpaint London , Whitbread

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE

British American Tobacco

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE

BP, ContourGlobal , Greencoat Renewables (CDI), Octopus Renewables Infrastructure Trust

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Consumer Price Index (US) (12:30)

Continuing Claims (US) (12:30)

Initial Jobless Claims (US) (12:30)

FINALS

WH Smith

SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Softcat

EGMS

Bankmuscat (S.A.O.G) GDR (Reg S), UIL Limited (DI)

AGMS

ACP Energy, Alternative Income Reit , BHP Group Limited NPV (DI), Ferro-Alloy Resources Limited NPV, London Finance & Investment Group, UIL Limited (DI)

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Regional REIT Limited, Vistry Group

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

RICS Housing Market Survey (00:01)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Hansard Global

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Baillie Gifford Japan Trust, Dunelm Group, Galliford Try, JPMorgan UK Smaller Companies Investment Trust, SCS Group , Softcat

Friday 11 November

INTERIMS

Urban Logistics Reit

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

AVI Japan Opportunity Trust , Cenkos Securities, Curtis Banks Group, Kerry Group ‘A’ Shares (CDI), Kingfisher, Plus500 Ltd (DI), Senior, Spectris, Spirax-Sarco Engineering, Travis Perkins

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE

Tufton Oceanic Assets Limited NPV

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Consumer Price Index (EU) (07:00)

Consumer Price Index (GER) (07:00)

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Hays

AGMS

Galliford Try, Redrow

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Balance of Trade (07:00)

GDP (Preliminary) (07:00)

Index of Services (07:00)

Industrial Production (07:00)

Manufacturing Production (07:00)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Hays, NCC Group

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