The market spotlight over the coming week will be firmly on the US non-farm payrolls report that will be published Friday.
Consensus is for a slowdown in the pace of hiring from the 390,000 seen in May to 250,000 as domestic demand ebbs.
However, average hourly earnings growth of 0.3% month-on-month, when combined with a flat work week of 34.6 hours “should fuel another decent gain in nominal labour compensation that should help offset erosion in aggregate purchasing power from high inflation,” Barclays Research said.
The week’s other big event in the US will be the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on 14-15 June.
Economists at Barclays also said they would be looking for clues as to what indicators the committee would be weighing when it next meets on 26-27 July to decide whether to hike the target range for short-term rates by 50 or 75 basis points.
On that note, writing in Project Syndicate on 29 June, Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business, said: “Most market analysts seem to think that central banks will remain hawkish, but I am not so sure.
“I have argued that they will eventually wimp out and accept higher inflation – followed by stagflation – once a hard landing becomes imminent, because they will be worried about the damage of a recession and a debt trap, owing to an excessive build-up of private and public liabilities after years of low interest rates.”
On home shores, the key release will be Tuesday’s final reading for S&P Global’s UK services sector Purchasing Managers’ index for June.
Due out the same day will a rival reading on euro area services, followed by the ISM Institute’s closely-followed survey for the US the next day.
A speech by European Central Bank boss, Christine Lagarde, the next day, may also merit watching.
In Japan, upper house elections on 10 July may hand a one-party majority to the LDP, prompting the country’s Prime Minister to pursue policies aimed more at distribution instead of ending deflation.
Down Under, rate-setters in Sydney will meet to decide on interest rates on Tuesday with economists anticipating a 50 basis point hike in the Cash Rate to 1.35%.
Monday 4 July
FINALS
ReNeuron Group, JPMorgan Global Core Real Assets Limited, Augmentum Fintech, Braemar Shipping Services
INTERIMS
Porvair, Harmony Energy Income Trust
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
H&T Group, Bigblu Broadband
AGMs
Active Energy Group
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Bunzl, Billington Holdings, Ferrexpo
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (GER) (07:00)
Producer Price Index (EU) (10:00)
Tuesday 5 July
FINALS
CML Microsystems, Supreme
INTERIMS
Kitwave Group
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Cairn Homes (CDI)
AGMs
Keystone Law Group, Saga, Immediate Acquisition, CT Automotive Group, Smartspace Software, Open Orphan
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Synthomer, Warpaint London, Jadestone Energy
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Composite (09:30)
PMI Services (09:30)
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Composite (GER) (08:55)
PMI Services (GER) (08:55)
PMI Services (EU) (09:00)
PMI Composite (EU) (09:00)
Factory Orders (US) (15:00)
Wednesday 6 July
FINALS
Enteq Technologies, D4T4 Solutions, Zoo Digital Group, Redde Northgate, ActiveOps, Argentex Group
INTERIMS
Robert Walters
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Ten Entertainment Group
AGMs
Assura, Mining, Minerals & Metals, Sirius Real Estate Ltd., Worldwide Healthcare Trust
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Balfour Beatty
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Britvic, Hollywood Bowl Group
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Construction (09:30)
INTERNATIONAL ECONNOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Factory Orders (GER) (07:00)
Retail Sales (EU) (10:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
PMI Composite (US) (14:45)
PMI Services (US) (14:45)
ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)
ISM Services (US) (15:00)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
FOMC Interest Rate Minutes (US) (19:00)
Thursday 7 July
FINALS
Watches of Switzerland Group, Currys, Baltic Classifieds Group, Jet2
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Time Finance, Vistry Group, Persimmon, Entain, RS Group
AGMs
Hiro Metaverse Acquisitions I S.A. Cls A Ord Npv (DI), Pets at Home Group, Severn Trent, Octopus Apollo VCT, Emmerson NPV, 3i Infrastructure, Tomco Energy, Brown (N.) Group, Distil, Land Securities Group, Puma Vct 13, C&C Group (CDI), Great Portland Estates, Maven Income & Growth VCT, Sainsbury (J), FD Technologies Public Limited Company
EGMs
Faron Pharmaceuticals Oy (DI)
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Cropper (James), Big Yellow Group, Mountview Estates, Next Fifteen Communications, Bisichi, New Century AIM VCT 2, Aveva Group, Sirius Real Estate Ltd., Camellia, Coca-Cola HBC AG (CDI), Caffyns, Fuller Smith & Turner, Shires Income, Concurrent Technologies, JD Sports Fashion, Workspace Group
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Young & Co’s Brewery (Non-Voting), Alliance Pharma, Irish Continental Group Units (Comp) (CDI), Lords Group Trading, Young & Co’s Brewery ‘A’ Shares
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Murray International Trust, Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust, CC Japan Income & Growth Trust, Next, Albion Venture Capital Trust, Premier Miton Group, Dewhurst Group ‘A’NON.VTG, Paragon Banking Group, Safestore Holdings, Up Global Sourcing Holdings, Dewhurst Group, European Assets Trust, Tavistock Investments, Schroder Income Growth Fund, New Century AIM VCT, abrdn Latin American Income Fund Limited NPV, Polar Capital Holdings
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Smiths News
SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Bisichi, Kings Arms Yard VCT, Pembroke Vct B
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
CT UK High Income Trust, CT UK High Income Trust B, CT Private Equity Trust, Primary Health Properties, Marble Point Loan Financing Limited NPV, ICG Enterprise Trust, Real Estate Credit Investments Ltd, British American Tobacco
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Law Debenture Corp.
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Halifax House Price Index (07:00)
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Industrial Production (GER) (07:00)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
Friday 8 July
FINALS
Great Eastern Energy Corp Ltd. GDR
AGMs
Kavango Resources
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Restore, Keystone Law Group, Christie Group, Animalcare Group, Hill & Smith Holdings, JTC, London Security, S&U, Capital & Counties Properties, Sopheon, Forterra, Likewise Group, WPP, Judges Scientific, Computacenter
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Income & Growth VCT, CT Global Managed Portfolio Trust Inc Shs, US Solar Fund, US Solar Fund (GBP), NB Global Monthly Income Fund Limited Red Ord Shs NPV £, Triple Point Energy Efficiency Infrastructure Company
Associated British Foods, Mobeus Income & Growth 4 Vct, ,I3 Energy
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Persimmon, Keystone Law Group
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Nonfarm Payrolls (US) (13:30)
Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)
Wholesales Inventories (US) (15:00)
Consumer Credit (US) (20:00)
