A new front in the battle against COVID
The US is making more advances in its battle with COVID-19. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention approved Pfizer-BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine for children ages 5 to 11. Many families with young children have been waiting for this moment, as they view it as the beginning of a return to normalcy. Anecdotally, I’ve heard from a number of friends whose children are in that age group who are eager to get their children vaccinated and immediately embrace a more pre-pandemic lifestyle – especially going on a family vacation, an important tradition that they have chosen to forego for nearly two years.
In addition, Pfizer made an exciting announcement last week that should be positive for the entire world, not just the US. It has developed a pill that has been shown in clinical trials to dramatically reduce hospitalizations and deaths in COVID-19 patients. Pfizer said the results showed such “overwhelming efficacy” that it plans to submit findings to US regulatory authorities in order to obtain emergency authorization as soon as possible. This follows Merck’s recent announcement that it too has developed a drug to combat COVID-19, although the reported efficacy level for Pfizer’s drug is much higher. From my perspective, this really is a “game changer” that can help the world on its path toward normal without government leaders agonizing over vaccination levels. After all, local governments often have to resort to lockdowns and stringency protocols when hospitals become overwhelmed with COVID patients. If these treatments can help prevent that, then this enables a full re-opening of economies.
The global view
Europe is also on the path to normal, but it is lagging the US. It has been hurt by supply shortages and a substantial rise in COVID-19 cases in the past six weeks, as evidenced by October PMIs. In Asia, countries have also been negatively impacted by supply chain shortages and COVID outbreaks. China has also faced headwinds because of power shortages. But some countries are seeing a nice uptick in economic activity; Japan’s COVID cases have fallen since September and its October PMIs reflect that improvement. The key takeaway is that medical advances will help the entire world, although it will take time to spread, hence a lagged march toward normal depending on where you are around the globe.
Conclusion
And so I am confident in declaring that the world is on the path to normal. But that doesn’t mean the ride is going to be short or smooth – or that we won’t take a few detours on our route. Supply chain issues and inflation will likely be very problematic in coming months, especially in the US, but I view that as an unavoidable bump in the road given what the world has been through in the past two years. When battling a fire, you still have to contend with damage from the smoke and water once the flames have been put out. All in all, I believe the global economy is better off than it was a year ago and it is headed in the right direction.
