Investors will have to navigate through a very busy week in terms of potential risk events with the Bank of England’s policy meeting on Thursday not least among them.
The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to unanimously support a further increase in Bank Rate, of 25 basis points this time to reach 0.50%.
Economists at Barclays Research also expect the minutes of the MPC meeting will reveal that the reinvestment of the proceeds from its stock of Gilts will end starting from early March.
They also expected the MPC would push back on current market pricing for interest rate increases by means of their inflation forecast which will use the entire energy futures curve and not just that for the first six months of 2021.
“While dovish members are likely to want to state that the quicker the pace of tightening, the better inflation expectations are contained and the lower the terminal rate, hawkish members will likely highlight that risks to inflation are to the upside and more hikes are needed, thus leaving the door open for back-to-back hikes in March and May.”
The European Central Bank will also hold its own policy meeting on Thursday with some analysts wondering aloud in recent days whether it will need to modify its policy bias should interest rates in the US now be headed higher more quickly than previously anticipated, which might weigh on the euro.
Barclays on the other hand expect ECB President, Christine Lagarde, to indicate that a first hike in rates is unlikely to arrive in 2022.
Against that backdrop, the US non-farm payrolls report for January, which is due out on Friday, is expected to reveal job gains of 238,000 people.
Worth noting, some economists are anticipating that US economic growth will stall during the first quarter of 2022 due to the hit from Omicron, although labour markets do tend to react with a lag.
Investors will also be keeping tabs on a slew of purchasing managers’ surveys due out from all the main geographical regions, including China on Sunday, followed by factory PMIs for the UK, euro area and US on Tuesday and services PMIs for those same last three regions on Thursday.
Monday 31 January
FINALS
Porvair, SThree, Guild Esports, React Group
INTERIMS
Sensyne Health, Vast Resources, Rosslyn Data Technologies, Van Elle Holdings, Amala Foods NPV, Global Ports Holding, Purplebricks Group
Q2
Sylvania Platinum Ltd (DI)
Q4
AltynGold
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Fireangel Safety Technology Group, Engage XR Holdings (CDI), Craneware, Vast Resources, Xpediator, Evraz, Tribal Group, Venture Life Group, Maintel Holdings, Belvoir Group, Next Fifteen Communications, Ebiquity, MJ Hudson Group NPV, Devolver Digital, Inc. (DI) Reg S Cat 3/144A, Tandem Group, KRM22, STM Group, Journeo, Studio Retail Group
AGMs
Global Petroleum Ltd., Boston International Holdings, Cloudbreak Discovery
GMs
Nuformix, Georgia Capital, Logistics Development Group
ANNUAL REPORT
Guild Esports
DRILLING REPORT
Bezant Resources, Blencowe Resources, Galantas Gold Corp., Cora Gold Limited (DI)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Topps Tiles, DotDigital Group, Focusrite, Lowland Investment Co, Smart (J) & Co.
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Ediston Property Investment Company, Albion Venture Capital Trust, European Assets Trust, BMO Commercial Property Trust Limited, Amedeo Air Four Plus Limited Red Ord NPV
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
GDP (Preliminary) (EU) (10:00)
Chicago PMI (US) (14:45)
Tuesday 1 February
FINALS
AJ Bell
INTERIMS
Joules Group, Fragrant Prosperity Holdings Limited (DI), NWF Group, Cordel Group
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Mears Group, Property Franchise Group, ICG Enterprise Trust, Eqtec (CDI), Elixirr International, Virgin Money UK, Spectral Md Holdings, Ltd (DI) (Reg S), Warpaint London, Plant Health Care, Mobile Tornado Group, XLMedia, Duke Royalty Limited, Joules Group, Gem Diamonds Ltd. (DI), Inspects Group, Kingswood Holdings Limited, Barr (A.G.), James Halstead
AGMs
Schroder Asia Pacific Fund
ANNUAL REPORT
Plant Health Care
DRILLING REPORT
Ariana Resources, Inspects Group
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Cardiff Property
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
F&C Investment Trust, Johnson Matthey, United Utilities Group
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Mercantile Investment Trust (The)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENT
Nationwide House Price Index (07:00)
Mortgage Approvals (09:30)
PMI Manufacturing (09:30)
Consumer Credit (09:30)
M4 Money Supply (09:30)
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)
Unemployment Rate (GER) (08:55)
PMI Manufacturing (GER) (08:55)
PMI Manufacturing (EU) (09:00)
Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)
PMI Manufacturing (US) (14:45)
Construction Spending (US) (15:00)
ISM Manufacturing (US) (15:00)
Wednesday 2 February
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Glencore, Severn Trent, Vodafone Group
AGMs
Imperial Brands, Premier Miton Group, Edinburgh Worldwide Inv Trust
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Britvic, Aberdeen Standard Asia Focus
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Mitie Group, Workspace Group
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aberdeen Standard Asia Focus
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BRC Shop Price Index (00:01)
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
Thursday 3 February
FINALS
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Shell ‘B’, Shell ‘A’
INTERIMS
Renishaw
Q3
BT Group
Q4
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Shell ‘B’, Shell, Shell ‘A’
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Cranswick, Seen, Virgin Wines UK
AGMS
Agronomics Limited, Baillie Gifford European Growth Trust, Future, Hargreave Hale AIM VCT, Sage Group, Hyve Group, JPMorgan Indian Investment Trust, Unicorn AIM VCT, Ten Lifestyle Group, Compass Group
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Blackrock Income And Growth Investment Trust, JPMorgan Russian Securities, Baronsmead Venture Trust, Ramsdens Holdings, Treatt, Baronsmead Second Venture Trust
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
RBG Holdings, Edinburgh Inv Trust, Albion Enterprise VCT, M & G Credit Income Investment Trust, North American Income Trust (The)
Downing One VCT, Polar Capital Global Healthcare Trust, GCP Asset Backed Income Fund Limited, DWF Group, GCP Infrastructure Investments Ltd, Axiom European Financial Debt Fund Limited, JPMorgan Global Core Real Assets Limited, JPMorgan Russian Securities, Henderson International Income Trust, Ecofin Global Utilities and Infrastructure Trust, Home Reit, PayPoint, Starwood European Real Estate Finance Ltd, Taylor Maritime Investments Limited NPV, IG Group Holdings, CVC Credit Partners European Opportunities Ltd GBP, EJF Investments Ltd NPV, Totally, CVC Credit Partners European Opportunities Ltd EURO, Residential Secure Income, Dunedin Income Growth Inv Trust, Marwyn Value Investors Limited, Blackstone Loan Financing Limited (EUR)
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
XPS Pensions Group, Gabelli Merger Plus+ Trust
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Chenavari Toro Income Fund Limited NPV, Merchants Trust, JPMorgan Claverhouse Inv Trust, Picton Property Income Ltd, Greencoat Renewables (CDI)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Services (09:30)
BoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Composite (GER) (08:55)
PMI Services (GER) (08:55)
PMI Composite (EU) (09:00)
PMI Services (EU) (09:00)
Producer Price Index (EU) (10:00)
ECB Interest Rate (EU) (12:45)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
PMI Services (US) (14:45)
PMI Composite (US) (14:45)
Factory Orders (US) (15:00)
ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)
ISM Services (US) (15:00)
Friday 4 February
Q3
Airtel Africa
AGMs
Aberdeen Standard Equity Income Trust, Cerillion, Brewin Dolphin Holdings, Shaftesbury, SSP Group
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Origin Enterprises (CDI), Diploma, Henderson European Focus Trust, AJ Bell, Daily Mail and General Trust A (Non.V)
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Halma, Aveva Group, Twentyfour Income Fund Limited Ord Red, TwentyFour Select Monthly Income Fund Limited, JPMorgan Multi-Asset Growth & Income, QinetiQ Group, Experian, Dr. Martens, Vodafone Group
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
AJ Bell
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
BMO UK High Income Trust, BMO UK High Income Trust B Shares
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Construction (09:30)
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Factory Orders (GER) (07:00)
Retail Sales (EU) (10:00)
Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)
Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)
