Thomas Watts, Senior Investment Analyst at Aberdeen MPS, has shared his thoughts on the economic data releases this week.
The British Retail Consortium will release its Sales Monitor figures on Tuesday, and although the figures lead the government released consumer inflation data by about 10 days, they can be narrower in scope as they only include goods purchased from retailers who belong to the BRC. Nonetheless the figures should give us a decent update as to how the UK high street is performing and what we should expect from both upcoming retail sales and inflation numbers.
With the UK labour market having proven remarkably resilient in the face of rising rates and the increase in NIC and minimum wage, the first half of the week will give us the opportunity to check the employment landscape for weaknesses, with both the Average Hourly Earnings Index and Unemployment Claimant Count coming out on Tuesday. Measuring the change in the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits during the previous month, claimant counts can be particularly useful, the figures are crucial in understanding the strength of the overall market as the figures contribute strongly to the unemployment picture.
Giving us a more comprehensive view of the domestic economy, later in the week the ONS will also release its monthly Gross Domestic Product data, the broadest gauge of economic health. With the UK economy having bounced back quicker and stronger than many expected, both those in the City of London and Westminster will hope there are no clouds on the horizon.
Whilst domestic news may dominate the agenda this week, the US releases its latest inflation numbers on Tuesday. With prices rising slightly quicker than expected last month and with the US labour markets showing signs of weakening, many will be hoping inflation shows some sign of abating. With the US Federal Reserve now looking like they will cut rates during their next meeting as a reaction to soft data, those on Wall Street will be hoping that prices are moving in the right direction at least.
