Joe Mazzola, Head Trading & Derivatives Strategist at Charles Schwab, looks at markets holding just below record highs as investors juggle fresh tariff threats and a busy week of central bank decisions and big tech earnings.
Despite new tariff fears and mixed earnings this morning, major indexes hover just below all-time highs as a Fed meeting begins and four mega caps report tomorrow and Thursday.
Joe Mazzola, Head Trading & Derivatives Strategist at Charles Schwab
(Tuesday market open) With fresh tariff threats in the news, the Federal Reserve starting its meeting, and a full plate of earnings on tap, major indexes initially built on yesterday’s gains early Tuesday, lifted by tech. However, rallies in slumping stocks like Meta Platforms (META) and Apple (AAPL) seemed predicated on solid quarterly results from them later this week, so investors await proof even with indexes approaching record highs.
Earnings from General Motors (GM), Boeing (BA), and UnitedHealth (UNH) vied for attention early, with health insurers taking a sharp blow from the U.S. government’s proposed small raise in payments for Medicare Advantage insurers. Meanwhile, as data center and AI-related firms report starting late tomorrow, spending will be under scrutiny. “Capital expenditure guidance will be interesting for hyperscalers,” said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR), referring to companies growing their AI data center capability. “Markets likely want ‘not too hot, not too cold’ capex guidance.”
Most S&P 500 sectors climbed Monday, possibly on hopes for solid Magnificent Seven earnings and ideas that geopolitical bumps might be smoothing. A call between President Trump and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz eased some market worries over domestic tension, Barron’s reported. Though things quieted slightly at home, Trump’s threat to lift tariffs to 25% from 15% on imports of South Korean autos, pharmaceuticals, and lumber brought new uncertainty. So did news of a major free-trade deal between Europe and India, which some analysts saw as a response to Trump’s tariffs.
Three things to watch
- Fed could be overshadowed: Amid the earnings tsunami, tomorrow’s rate decision might almost end up an afterthought. Futures trading pencils in less than 3% chances of a change, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The Fed reduced rates three times late last year, and many recent Fed speakers indicated they want to wait for more data to see the impact before turning the dial down further. Still, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference is worth watching for any signals on the future rate path or his own future as he contemplates whether to stay at the Fed after his chairmanship expires in May. This may be his last press conference without a successor named amid speculation an announcement could occur this week. Also, investors will monitor the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) updated statement for any minor shifts in language. This week’s meeting doesn’t include projections on the economy or rates. “With inflation still closer to 3% than 2%, most officials likely won’t see a need to cut rates again,” said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at SCFR. “Will there be dissents? Assuming the Fed holds rates steady, there may be a dissent or two in favor of cutting rates. It seems unlikely that a voting member would dissent in favor of actually raising rates.”
- Silver rally draws power from retail traders: Silver topped $100 per troy ounce for the first time a few days ago, driven by heavy investor demand amid worries about global trade, inflation, and debt. A supply deficit of the metal is another factor, and the record rally in gold has also raised interest in other metals. Where is the money pouring into silver coming from? Look toward Asian retail traders, according to a recent Bloomberg article. China got the trend started but it’s now spread to Turkey and the Middle East, Bloomberg said. Retail demand thinned inventories, leaving little wiggle room in the supply chain. This in and of itself can boost prices. It’s unclear when the rally will fade, but with global tensions and uncertainty back this week, fundamentals haven’t changed much. Still, both silver and gold have come a long way very quickly, so anyone participating in these markets might want to expect volatility.
- Under the hood: The S&P 500’s Relative Strength Index, or RSI, a momentum indicator, bounced above 56 early this week but remains well below what some consider overbought levels near 70. Last Tuesday’s low was around 45. Also, market breadth looks relatively healthy with close to 70% of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, respectively. Sectors with the best breadth include cyclical ones like materials, industrials, and energy, a healthy sign that stocks outside the mega caps are finding buyers, though mega caps appeared to rebound versus smaller stocks Monday. Volatility is subdued up front but not under the surface, where institutions have been adding hedges and not pulling back on previous ones. This makes sense given all the macro events and this week’s emphasis on micro events in the form of earnings. The major indexes remain range bound and seem unable to power to new highs. To do that, there needs to be more tech participation, and earnings could be the catalyst.
On the move
- Boeing slipped 1% after reporting better-than-expected revenue and positive free cash flow in the most recent quarter. The company’s backlog grew to a record $682 billion. Earnings of $9.92 per share may not be comparable because it reflects a $9.6 billion gain on a sale associated with closing a deal. The company would’ve had an approximately $2 per share loss without the sale, Barron’s noted.
- General Motors rose 3.6% ahead of the open despite quarterly revenue missing analysts’ estimates. Earnings easily surpassed consensus, but revenue fell 5.1%. The company’s guidance was in line with estimates.
- UnitedHealth plunged 16% on the morning of its earnings report, and Humana (HUM) fell about the same. CVS (CVS) also stumbled. This followed the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) proposal to raise payments to Medicare Advantage insurers by a net average of just 0.09% in 2027, far below estimates. Looking at UNH earnings, EPS slightly surpassed consensus and revenue matched consensus, but guidance was mixed.
- Micron (MU) jumped 5% in early trading after it announced it would invest around $24 billion in Singapore in the next decade amid strong memory chip demand, Barron’s reported.
- Union Pacific (UNP) shares were flat after revenue, earnings, and guidance all roughly matched Wall Street’s expectations.
- Northrop Grumman (NOC) slid about 2% in early trading as earnings per share were better than analysts expected, revenues met expectations, but guidance for fiscal 2026 EPS came in short of consensus. Aeronautics Systems sales rose 18% and Defense Systems climbed 7% during the quarter.
- United Parcel Service (UPS) climbed more than 3% early Tuesday as earnings and revenue from the delivery firm surpassed Wall Street’s consensus. Guidance for annual revenue also appeared to impress the market.
- Tesla (TSLA) inched up early Tuesday ahead of tomorrow afternoon’s earnings report. Shares are roughly in the middle of their near-term range but down sharply from recent highs near $500.
- Booz Allen (BAH) plunged more than 8% Monday after the Treasury Department canceled contracts with the consulting firm.
- Apple (AAPL) climbed 3% Monday for its best session since October as shares received a price target increase from JPMorgan Chase, which sees a positive set-up for shares heading into earnings this week.
- CoreWeave (CRWV) climbed another 6% this morning, building on yesterday’s sharp gains that came after CoreWeave and Nvidia (NVDA) announced they were strengthening their collaboration. An upgrade from Deutsche Bank supported CoreWeave’s shares today.
- Gold (/GC) barely moved this morning but remained near record highs approaching $5,100 an ounce. Silver slumped 3% but remains above $110.
- The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) pulled back another 0.4% this morning amid inflation, rate, government shutdown, and geopolitical concerns and is now testing the September low just above 96. It hasn’t been below that since early 2022. A partial U.S. government shutdown appears possible at the end of the week.
- Bitcoin (/BTC) inched higher today but remains well below recent highs amid geopolitical tension that appears to be driving some investors toward metals.
