Homeowners planning a renovation this year may face higher window and door prices by summer, an unexpected knock-on effect of the Iran war and an oil price surge not seen since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
As Brent crude holds above $100 a barrel this morning, still up at around 40% since the war began on 28 February, the conflict entered its twentieth day with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed to commercial shipping and no resolution in sight. Since US-Israeli strikes began on 28 February, only 90 tankers have passed through the strait, compared to a normal rate of roughly 120 vessels a day, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Monday that reopening it is “not a simple task” and that the UK is working with allies to formulate a collective plan. The government’s official economic forecaster, the OBR, has warned that if oil and gas prices remain at current levels, UK inflation could reach 3% by the end of the year, one percentage point above the government’s target.
But beyond petrol forecourts and energy bills, there is a less-discussed impact building quietly in the construction supply chain.
uPVC, which is used in around 68% of replacement windows and doors in the UK, is partly manufactured from ethylene, a petrochemical derived from crude oil. When oil prices rise, so do the raw material costs for manufacturers. Industry research shows oil price changes typically take around four months to feed through to consumer prices in construction.
For a semi-detached home, a full uPVC window installation currently costs between £4,000 and £6,000. With oil having surged more than 50% in three weeks and the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively closed to commercial shipping, homeowners could see that figure rise before the end of summer.
The timing is particularly sharp for homeowners with older glazing. Around 18% of a home’s heat is lost through windows, and upgrading to energy-efficient double glazing can save up to £395 a year on bills, at a time when Cornwall Insight forecasts the energy price cap will rise to £1,827 in July, an 11% increase from the current April level of £1,641.
Antony Heath, Development Director of Gloucestershire-based Glevum Windows, said the connection between oil prices and window costs was one the industry was already feeling:
“The connection between oil prices and window costs isn’t something most people think about, but nearly half the raw material in a uPVC frame comes from petroleum. What we’re seeing in global markets right now will feed through to quotes. Homeowners who are already thinking about new windows would be wise to move sooner rather than later.”
For homeowners considering new windows or doors, industry experts suggest:
- Get quotes now, not later. With a four-month lag between oil price rises and construction costs, current installer prices may not yet reflect the spike. Locking in a quote now could save hundreds.
- Prioritise the worst-performing rooms first. North-facing rooms and single-glazed frames lose the most heat and will offer the biggest return on investment when energy bills are high.
- Check your window rating. Windows are rated A++ to E for energy efficiency. Anything rated C or below may not meet current building regulations and is likely costing you more on bills than it should.
- Don’t overlook doors. A poorly insulated front or back door can account for significant heat loss, and uPVC doors are subject to the same raw material pressures as windows.
- Ask about lead times. Fabricators are already reporting supply chain pressures. Even if prices hold short-term, delays in installation are increasingly likely.
