John Wyn Evans, Head of Market Analysis at Rathbones, one of the UK’s leading wealth and asset management groups, has shared his insights on the recently announced ceasefire in Iran.
The ceasefire has delivered sharp relief to markets, but the next fortnight is as much about fragility as it is about resolution. Investors will be watching three things closely. First, whether negotiations translate into any concrete progress rather than simply buying time; the fact talks are starting so quickly is positive, but expectations should remain low.
Second, developments around the Strait of Hormuz: safe passage is critical, and any disruption would very quickly feed back into energy prices and inflation expectations. Third, the broader regional picture. Israel’s comments on Lebanon are a reminder that this is a pause in one conflict, not a return to stability.
The market reaction makes sense – oil, gas and risk assets are unwinding worst‑case scenarios – but conditions remain far from normal. This is a tradeable calm rather than a durable peace, and it wouldn’t take much over the next two weeks to reverse today’s optimism.
There is little certainty and any dust that settles could be quickly disturbed. It feels likely that we will be left with higher energy prices than before the conflict began, and central banks will be slower to cut interest rates – though they now have less cause to raise them.
