After England failed to find the net against Ghana, fans may be wondering whether the Three Lions can go all the way or not. But while England may still be the nation’s favourite bet, data from ETF investment platform InvestEngine suggests retail investors would have been better off putting their money behind Spain.
InvestEngine modelled what would have happened if an investor had put £10,000 into an ETF tracking the stock market of each of the three World Cup host nations as well as the seven countries with the best odds of lifting the trophy this summer.
A £10,000 investment in England (FTSE 100) made the day after the 2022 World Cup final would now be worth £15,937 – a healthy £6,000 return, however, the same investment in Spanish stocks would have returned 154% and be worth £25,428 – almost £10,000 more.
Despite Spain’s national squad losing on penalties in the 2022 knockout stages, Spain’s ETF has the highest return of any country in the study – more than 70% higher than its nearest rival and more than four times the growth of some of the other ETFs in the table of nations.
Host nation the United States ranked second, with £10,000 growing to £18,340, followed by hosts Canada (£17,508) and then Germany (£17,259). And, while Spain and the 2022 runners up, France, currently share the similar odds of winning the 2026 World Cup (4/1) Spanish equities have returned almost four times that of France.
All calculations based on £10,000 invested on 19th December 2022:
| Country | Odds to win World Cup | ETF Fund | Ticker | Growth | Final* |
| Spain | 5/1 | Amundi IBEX 35 UCITS ETF | LYXIB SM | 154% | £25,429 |
| USA | 40/1 | Invesco S&P 500 | SPXP | 83% | £18,340 |
| Canada | 250/1 | UBS MSCI Canada UCITS ETF | UB23 | 75% | £17,508 |
| Germany | 14/1 | Xtrackers Dax | XDAX | 73% | £17,259 |
| England | 7/1 | Ishares FTSE 100 | CUKX | 59% | £15,937 |
| Netherlands | 14/1 | iShares AEX UCITS ETF | IAEX | 59% | £15,908 |
| Mexico | 50/1 | iShares MSCI Mexico Capped UCITS ETF | CMX1 | 54% | £15,381 |
| Argentina | 9/1 | Amundi MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America | LTAM | 51% | £15,140 |
| France | 4/1 | iShares MSCI France UCITS ETF | ISFR | 39% | £13,928 |
| Brazil | 10/1 | iShares MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF | IBZL | 37% | £13,668 |
| * = Historical illustration . Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results | |||||
“Spain may have crashed out of the 2022 world cup but their stock has done anything but. “Investors who stayed invested in Spanish equities since the end of the 2022 World Cup would have more than doubled their money over the past three-and-a-half years, while even the relatively lower performing investments in our analysis have still outperformed inflation considerably over that time.
“Of course, past performance doesn’t determine future returns, and sadly there’s no link between success on the football pitch and success in the stock market. While it’s a fun comparison as the world cup gets closer to the knockout stages, most investors are likely to be better served by a globally diversified portfolio rather than backing a single country.”
Andrew Prosser, Head of Investments at InvestEngine
