Businesses yet to feel full impact of renewed Middle East conflict

The resumption of hostilities in the Middle East has renewed concerns over inflation and supply chain disruption, but many businesses have yet to feel the full impact on their costs, according to Fidelity International’s latest Analyst Pulse Survey.

The quarterly survey of almost 100 of Fidelity’s equity and fixed income analysts, conducted in June and informed by the team’s ongoing meetings with company management teams, found that 55% expect inflationary pressures within the companies they cover to increase over the next 12 months as a result of the Middle East conflict.

While many businesses have so far been protected by energy hedging programmes and existing inventories, analysts believe higher energy, freight and raw material costs are likely to become more visible as those protections expire. Consumer, industrial and utilities companies are expected to experience the greatest increase in cost pressures, although analysts anticipate higher input costs across every sector and region.

“The renewed conflict is adding to an already uncertain backdrop for businesses. While many companies have yet to feel the full impact on their cost base, our analysts expect inflationary pressures to become more apparent over the coming months as existing buffers begin to unwind. The extent to which companies can manage those pressures is likely to become an increasingly important differentiator.”

Niamh Brodie-Machura, CIO, Equities at Fidelity International

Companies continue investing despite rising cost pressures

Despite this more challenging environment, analysts expect companies to continue increasing capital expenditure. Expectations are strongest in utilities, energy and information technology. These sectors are expected to play a central role in supporting continued investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, from power generation and networks to semiconductors and data centres.

Analysts also expect corporate profitability to remain resilient over the next 12 months. Despite higher expected costs, more analysts expect profitability to improve than deteriorate, suggesting many companies remain well placed to manage inflationary pressures despite a more uncertain operating environment.

“Taken together, the survey highlights three themes shaping markets today: persistent inflation pressures, rising capital expenditure and resilient corporate profitability. While geopolitical uncertainty is creating new challenges, many businesses appear well placed to navigate them. For investors, identifying those companies that can continue investing while maintaining profitability will remain critical.”

Niamh Brodie-Machura