The short timeframe for China to achieve carbon neutrality is challenging. Emissions in the EU peaked in 1990, giving it 50 years to hit its 2050 zero target, compared to China’s 30 years. And that’s before considering China’s stronger economic growth prospects and the extra industrial output that implies. However, as a recent International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) report made clear, there is a need for urgent action. Human-induced climate change is already affecting many global weather and climate extremes, and unless there are immediate, rapid, and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, restricting temperature increases to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be impossible.
Frankly, we expected more aggressive targets from China, especially considering both its key role in achieving global carbon reduction targets and the technological and industrial resources it has at hand. We look forward to hearing more detailed plans at the forthcoming UN Climate Change Conference (COP 26) in October.
Will China Achieve its Carbon Neutral Ambition?
China’s track record of overdelivering on its Five-Year Plans leaves us optimistic. The government is not subject to the short election cycles that can lead governments to set over-ambitious goals. Furthermore, temperatures in China are expected to increase by more than the global average, leading to a greater probability of droughts, floods and heatwaves. Acting now is in China’s interest.
Other strategic benefits from achieving the carbon neutral target include:
- Increased energy security – self-reliance is high on the agenda; most of China’s energy comes from fossil fuels, and in recent years imports have been rising.
- Maintain top spot as a leader in clean technology – it is unlikely that China wants to give up its position as the world’s top manufacturer of electric cars, wind turbines and solar modules.
- Improve air quality – this is a key concern for China’s citizens, with air pollution causing an estimated 500,000 premature deaths in China each year.
- Diplomacy – the Chinese government is likely to see the potential value of demonstrating leadership on the global stage.
A Fine Balancing Act
While there are benefits to carbon neutrality other than environmental, careful management is needed to minimise the economic pain. Despite the huge rise in average annual income, millions in China still earn less than $5.50 a day; attempts to tackle income inequality will need to be balanced with emissions reductions. China is a vast country with a variety of regional differences to do with development, economic policy and climate change; decarbonisation, for example, will be harder in regions reliant on heavy industry and coal power.
The most recent Five-Year Plan directly emphasises the importance of climate change. Where the Chinese government leads, the rest of the country will follow; in a survey by Danish green-energy company Ørsted, over 90% of Chinese respondents agreed that it is important to create a world powered by renewable energy. And the Chinese government appears to be well attuned to popular opinion when addressing climate change: the recent Chair’s Summary of the 5th Ministerial on Climate Action – an official government source – said, “citizens and especially youth are demanding greater urgency.”
As the largest CO2 emitter, becoming carbon neutral is a huge undertaking for China, but necessary if the world is to successfully tackle climate change. Thankfully, China has tended to deliver on previous energy efficiency and emissions reduction targets, indicating a longstanding commitment to sustainable growth.
