Elsewhere in the Emerging Markets world it has been a very mixed bag, with country index returns ranging from over 30% gains (Czech Republic) to over 30% losses (Turkey). Of the big, more developed markets, Taiwan, despite the political backdrop, has won handsomely over Korea in 2021. Both of these are overly influenced by semiconductor behemoths, an area in which we do not claim expertise. That said, it is firmly our view that the talk of semiconductor shortages, or indeed any other shortages, will be a distant memory by this time next year.
In the rest of Asia our exposure remains largely through Sea Limited whose business has had another good year, albeit the stock price has corrected of late. We remain positive on the business and the shares now look attractive once more. As in India, the field here is widening with the listing of Bukalapak (e-commerce) and GRAB (ride hailing/delivery) and the imminent arrival of GoTo (the merger of Indonesian champions Gojek and Tokopedia). The more traditional areas of consumption remain hampered by lingering covid issues, indifferent politics, and competition from the online world.
Troubled politics and the associated hurt this causes economies and confidence can be extended beyond South East Asia, with potentially troublesome elections coming in Brazil next year, the primary reason for our recent exit. We retain selective and very stock specific exposure outwith the big markets of India and China, and while always on the hunt, do not see this changing markedly in 2022.
Our current stocks have a range of valuations but overall the portfolio is sitting a little above the typical 1x PEG ratio. It is worth remembering though that this is clearly distorted by the larger Indian weighting where valuations tend always to be higher. The China holdings typically have lower PEGs, and particularly so now, and any move back into China would swing the portfolio PEG lower. What is more important to us is not so much what PE we pay, but in ensuring the growth is really coming through to justify it. We do this by looking in the right areas, whether its electric vehicles in China, organised retailers in India, or e-commerce in Indonesia, and then investing in the right companies. 2022 will certainly be no different, find the right companies, and it should be a rewarding year.
Performance
| Net Performance (USD) as at 30 November 2021 | YTD | 1 Year | 3 Years | 5 Years | 7 Years | Inception |
| Aubrey Global Emerging Markets
Strategy* |
-2.5% | 2.7% | 84.4% | 130.7% | 99.3% | 231.1% |
| MSCI TR Net Emerging Markets USD (NDUEEGF) | -4.3% | 2.7% | 30.5% | 57.5% | 41.8% | 43.5% |
| *The above figures have been calculated using a combination of OMGI Fund GBP share class (14Mar12 to 31Mar15) and the AGEM Fund IC2 USD Share Class from 01Apr15 which have been recalculated to simulate USD performance over the same period using GBP to USD FX Daily Spot Rate sourced via Bloomberg. The resultant combined performance is calculated in USD and presented net of management fees and transaction costs. The OMGI Fund GBP performance has been used to simulate the past performance of the AGEM fund because they have both followed the same strategy. However past and simulated performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and you may not get back what you originally invested and investment returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. | ||||||
