Intel’s sunny results gave the entire tech sector an early boost, adding to positive feelings generated by an extended Middle East ceasefire and hope for a new set of peace talks. Joe Mazzola, Head Trading & Derivatives Strategist at Charles Schwab shares his insights.
(Friday market open) Tech struggled Thursday, pulled down by software shares in a selloff that reverberated around the market. Today, tech appears headed the opposite way thanks to impressive results from chipmakerIntel (INTC) that catapulted shares nearly 30% at one point ahead of the open and lifted the Nasdaq by as much as 1.5%. The broader market also inched higher early, on pace for a fourth-straight weekly gain thanks to crude prices easing slightly after President Trump announced a three-week extension of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon and on media reports of Iran’s foreign minister heading to Pakistan. This raised hope for peace talks, though it’s unclear if any U.S. representatives are going.
Next week is arguably the busiest of the quarter, highlighted by rate decisions from three major central banks—including the Federal Reserve—and results from five of the Magnificent 7. Corporate growth appears to be holding up, though investors might want to be on guard for any lag, as higher energy prices and supply chain friction can still show up later in margins. Tech and financials have delivered solid results, but they’re less sensitive to energy consumption. The real tell might be industrials, consumer discretionary, and staples. Coming days bring a host of consumer-centered results including Starbucks (SBUX), Apple (AAPL), and Amazon (AMZN).
Major indexes fell Thursday as the conflict dragged on and oil prices hit one-week highs. The software slump put tech stocks on defense and punctured a recovery many software names had enjoyed over the last two weeks. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and U.S. airlines are cutting capacity as they grapple with higher costs. The coming week brings a host of key data, including housing starts and building permits, the government’s first look at first quarter gross domestic product (GDP), and, perhaps most important, the Fed’s favorite inflation reading, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices.
Three things to watch
- Inflation under scrutiny: Today isn’t completely quiet on data, as investors get the final April reading on University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10 a.m. ET. The Briefing.com consensus is 47.6, unchanged from the record-low preliminary figure released earlier this month. Inflation expectations for the long term, which rose to 3.4% in the preliminary report from 3.2% in March, are worth a close look. Any uptick might attract the Fed’s attention, as policymakers remain concerned about keeping long-term inflation expectations anchored. They tend to pay less attention to short-term inflation expectations, which also rose in the preliminary report but are closely tied to gasoline prices. Despite sentiment being in the basement, early indications from earnings season across sectors show consumers continuing to spend, an interesting dichotomy that may point again to the so-called “k-shaped” economy in which high earners keep opening their wallets.
- Magnificent 7 earnings could set tone: There’s still lots of “short attention span” money in the market, which is one tailwind behind recent mega-cap strength. However, the test for these stocks and the market’s mood may come next week when five of the Mag 7 report. The market recently took just 11 trading days to recover its losses since the war began, and mega-caps helped lead before yesterday’s Microsoft (MSFT) retreat. While it’s not a perfect track record, history shows markets have often advanced over the next year following that kind of move. “I think we’re still at the mercy of oil prices, narrative changes, and social media postings,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, or SCFR, in a recent podcast. As the “Magnificent” part of earnings season looms, there’s been a move toward more buying of individual stocks, especially in tech, as investors sell index premium. Call-buying into mega-cap earnings possibly raises the odds of larger post-print moves.
- Long stocks, short volatility trade takes hold: The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) fell 2.8% early today to 18.76, near its post-Iran war lows. Market participants have embraced taking short positions on volatility even while getting long, or buying, individual stocks. That’s one reason VIX remains below the historic dividing line of 20 despite soaring oil prices and conflict in the Middle East, something that’s puzzled many market participants. This sort of weak intra-market correlation, sometimes called a “dispersion trade,” could lead to a major short-covering event in the VIX if a dramatic shock from inside or outside the market caused stock selling to accelerate quickly. A similar situation in early 2018 sent VIX briefly above 50, Bloomberg noted in an article today on what it called an “important marker of complacency and underlying macro fragility.”
On the move
Railroads Union Pacific (UNP) and CSX (CSX) climbed 8% and 7%, respectively, on Thursday. CSX got a friendly reaction to earnings, which showed quarterly volume growth up 3% and improving operating margin. The company also raised guidance. Union Pacific reaffirmed guidance after an earnings beat.
Intel climbed 25% in early trading to its highest levels in history, surpassing its dot.com era record. The chipmaker’s quarterly earnings and revenue easily topped Wall Street’s consensus. Intel’s guidance also appeared to impress, and the key metric of foundry revenue climbed 16% year over year. Data center and AI revenue rose 22% as demand climbs for Intel’s central-processing units, or CPUs, and the company partners with big tech players, including Tesla (TSLA). Following Texas Instruments’ (TXN) impressive quarterly AI results reported earlier this week, Intel’s results might reinforce ideas that AI demand remains resilient.
Picking up wind from Intel’s sails, chip and AI-related stocks surged early today, led by 12% gains for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Others rising included Arm Holdings (ARM), Marvell Technology(MRVL), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), ASML (ASML), and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), all up 3.5% or more. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) enters today on a 17-session win streak, and up 6% for the week.
The software sector dove yesterday after earnings and outlooks from IBM (IBM) and ServiceNow (NOW) failed to impress investors. Workday (WDAY), Microsoft (MSFT), and Intuit (INTU) also fell sharply Thursday. This snapped an eight-day winning streak for software, which is now down nearly 30% since last fall. IBM, which has a position in software through its Red Hat unit, kept its full-year guidance unchanged, disappointing some investors, Barron’s reported.
Nike (NKE) rose 0.5% after CNBC reported late yesterday that Nike plans to lay off 1,400 employees in its second round of job cuts this year.
Meta Platforms (META) fell 2.3% yesterday but inched higher this morning as investors responded to news that the company plans to cut 8,000 jobs, or 10% of its workforce. This came a day after Reuters reported that Meta is installing software on U.S.-based employee’s computers as part of an effort to teach AI models and grade employees on their AI use.
Qualcomm (QCOM) jumped 5%, helped by the general rally in tech. Shares of the chipmaker recently enjoyed a long winning streak but remain down about 20% this year as analysts cut earnings projections amid rising memory costs, Bloomberg noted.
Energy stocks generally fell this morning as crude oil eased. ConocoPhillips (COP) fell 2%.
