US non-farm payrolls rose by 64k in November, modestly surpassing the consensus expectation of 50k, while private-sector payrolls increased by 69k, also beating the 45k forecast when government jobs are excluded. However, underlying momentum continues to cool, with the three-month moving average of payroll growth slowing to a run rate of just 22k, down sharply from a peak of 232k in January. The unemployment rate also edged higher to 4.6% in November, above the 4.4% consensus, according to the latest US jobs data.
Experts are reacting to the US jobs report news below:
Ellie Sawkins, Investment Analyst at Wealth Club said:
“After a chaotic October, the US labour market appears to be finding its feet.
Despite a 43-day government shutdown and the ‘Fork in the Road’ federal purge which hit October’s data, November marked a return to the status quo, with job additions largely meeting expectations.
While October remains a statistical anomaly – the first missing unemployment rate since 1948 – November’s lukewarm print provides much-needed cover for the Fed, following its decision to cut rates last week. Ironically, while a rise in unemployment and slowing wage growth might make for a less cheery Christmas for consumers, it may be exactly what the Fed was hoping for.”
Daniele Antonucci, Chief Investment Officer at Quintet Private Bank (parent of Brown Shipley) comments:
The US labour market data is mixed: non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations in November, but it did shed over 100 thousand jobs the month before.
What’s more, Fed Chair Powell recently mentioned that the job numbers were likely overestimating employment growth, hinting at downward revisions.
Crucially, the unemployment rate spiked to 4.6%, far worse than expected and the highest level in more than four years.
However, the data is a bit stale, as it got published later than usual given the recent US government shutdown.
So, while implications of today’s numbers are somewhat more limited than usual from a timeliness point of view, we think the Fed is likely to continue to lower rates in 2026, as the job market is cooling.
An uncertainty is the next Fed chair, who will have the difficult task of maintaining credibility while leaning on the dovish side.
That said, we think 2026 begins on firmer ground than many feared, as the recession that many expected in 2025 never materialised.
Fiscal stimulus, falling interest rates and steady policy support have helped markets recover even as global politics and trade remain complex.
A more predictable rhythm of US-China negotiations and reduced trade uncertainty have also contributed to the recovery.
Beneath the surface, the world is shifting to a more fragmented multi-polar landscape.
This regional fragmentation is fuelling competition for key technologies and supplies, while ageing populations and rising sovereign debt keep funding costs higher than before.
These forces imply wider divergence in outcomes and less predictable market relationships, making differentiation across asset classes and geographies more important than ever.
We maintain a moderate preference for equities over bonds.
Relative to our long-term allocation, we stay diversified and slightly overweight the US for the growth opportunities it offers.
We’re also overweight European equities, given spending in defence and infrastructure, and where any hypothetical Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is an upside risk, and attractively-valued emerging markets.
After a significant rally, we decided to take profits on Japanese equities.
Also, as a bigger-than-expected fiscal package and more significant interest rate hikes, both recent developments, might continue to negatively impact government bonds in Japan, we decided to sell our position.
We used the proceeds to increase our emerging market equity overweight, buy UK gilts stripping out currency effects and some short-dated European government bonds, to redeploy at the first available opportunity.
Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter:
“This week marks the beginning of a pre-Christmas US economic ‘data dump’ that is the hangover from the earlier government shutdown. Today’s jobs data comes at a crucial juncture after investors and rate setters were denied the ability to take the temperature of the US economy as they digested tariffs, sweeping changes to immigration policy and emerging signs of a slowdown in the labour market.
Today we get not one but two months of labour market data, but even this will continue to raise questions with both months impacted by various distortions. October data reflects the first month of the US government’s fiscal year, with a sharp decline in federal employment (162,000) coinciding with workers officially leaving government employment under a deferred-resignation arrangement made earlier in the year. This put a huge dent in the overall monthly figures, which saw payroll employment down by 105,000, significantly worse than expected. Whilst jobs did bounce back more than expected in November – up 64,000 compared to forecasts of 50,000 – these numbers remain very subdued compared to the levels typically seen in the post-pandemic years.
“However, it is not clear that this is reflective of a cyclical slowdown. As well as being impacted by the distortions of the shutdown and immigration policy, the US labour market is returning to a more normal footing after a post-pandemic boom in job openings that saw the ratio of openings to unemployed workers rise from around 1.2 to 2. It has now returned to a relatively healthy level of one opening per unemployed worker, a level which is still much higher than the decade prior to the pandemic and one which means we are likely to see wage inflation continuing to ease, reducing pressure on wider inflation metrics but possibly introducing an added headwind to growth.
“With further data due in coming days on inflation and GDP growth for the third quarter, a clearer picture of the US economy will emerge, and investors will learn whether market expectations for just one rate cut in 2026 is realistic. With the majority of FOMC members believing that interest rates are already very close to the theoretical neutral level, at which interest rates neither stimulate nor restrict activity, the scope for future cuts may be limited unless it seems likely that projections are incorrect. With unemployment already standing at 4.6% having risen from 4% at the start of the year, the Committee may be further pressured to reassess this in the coming months, potentially opening the door to further rate cuts.”
Daniel Casali, chief investment strategist at wealth management firm Evelyn Partners, comments:
‘US November non-farm payrolls came in above expectations, and employment continues to grow at a pace that supports economic expansion alongside policy easing. This combination forms a constructive backdrop for corporate earnings and equity markets.
‘Crucially, there is limited evidence that US tariff increases have had a significant impact on corporate profit margins. The relative stability in profit margins does not point to a material pick-up in the unemployment rate over the next 12 months.
‘Monthly non-farm payrolls have slowed throughout 2025 due to a confluence of factors. These include tighter immigration policies under the Trump administration and a wave of federal employees leaving their jobs after DOGE offered early retirement and redundancy packages though the Federal Government Deferred Resignation Program.
‘Nevertheless, firms still have three reasons to hire:
- Resilient economic growth: Job creation is supported by solid domestic demand. For example, real final sales to private domestic purchasers—a measure that excludes volatile components like inventories, government spending, and exports—is projected by the Atlanta Fed’s “nowcast” model to grow 2.5% in Q3 and has expanded consistently throughout the year. Moreover, average hourly earnings are rising faster than inflation, reinforcing private consumption. This favourable backdrop should give businesses confidence to take on more staff.
- Labour remains relatively inexpensive: In Q2 2025, labour compensation accounted for roughly 52% of US GDP, down from a cyclical peak of 58% in 2001, the year China joined the World Trade Organization. China’s integration into global manufacturing expanded labour supply worldwide, suppressing wage growth in advanced economies. Today, the relatively low cost of labour continues to encourage hiring.
- Improved labour market efficiency: Advances in telecommunications and digital platforms have enabled firms to redistribute service-sector jobs to regions with higher unemployment and lower wages. Tools like LinkedIn have also enhanced the efficiency of matching job seekers with vacancies, helping to reduce frictional unemployment and associated costs. The flexibility of the US labour market positions the economy to better absorb shocks, including trade tariffs, as well as policy shifts under the Trump administration.
‘On balance, relatively soft job creation versus history could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider proactive interest rate cuts to mitigate the risk of a broad economic downturn. Importantly, the macroeconomic backdrop enhances the likelihood that companies should meet analysts’ earnings expectations and support the equity rally underway.’
Following today’s market open, Joe Mazzola, Head Trading & Derivatives Strategist at Charles Schwab, said:
“U.S. jobs growth totaled 64,000 in November and unemployment rose to 4.6%—the highest since 2021 and up from 4.2% a year ago, the government said Tuesday in its nonfarm payrolls report. Though the headline data from November didn’t clash dramatically with expectations, October’s massive plunge of 105,000 jobs showed a labor market that continues to struggle. Major U.S. indexes, which approached the report lower in trading before the bell, were little changed after the data and remained red, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq still down most. The dollar and Treasury yields slipped after the news.”
